Vladimir Putin held a two-hour press conference with Russian war correspondents and bloggers on June 15, 2023 regarding the Ukraine SMO. It has garnered a lot of media attention because he made a number of interesting revelations about Russia’s goals, strategies and perspectives. A full, unedited and subtitle video link is here. Simplicius wrote about it on Substack in two articles, commenting on how Putin characterized Russia’s space program in the latter.
From Simplicius, written at AFU Suffers Horror Breakdowns as Russian Forces Repel New Advance (substack.com)
Next, on a more downer note, there was one new segment towards the end which was a little eye-opening for me. Here, Putin was asked about the West’s ISR overmatch that we’ve so often talked about here. His response left a little to be desired, in my view. He admitted to the West’s advantage, but with a sort of shrug proudly said that Russia currently fields the 5th largest space asset fleet in the world. Sorry, but I think I speak for most people when I say that’s not good enough. The country which was the #1 space superpower in history should not be relegated to the #5 spot, and its leader should not be ‘proud’ of this fact.
In my opinion, Simplicius is the number one blogger and analyst regarding the Ukrainian war. However, there is more to be said about Russia’s space program and Putin seemed to be understating its abilities. Humility is a Slavic value after all. That said, the US and China most probably have larger programs, but Russia’s technology should not be dismissed. I am not sure what programs Putin considers to be in the 3rd and 4th position. And it is not all about the number of satellites.
After more criticism, Simplicius adds a more positive note:
But, this wretched tale does have somewhat of an optimistic ending. Not only have I repeatedly reported on an unprecedented amount of satellites being launched by Russia since last year, but there is even now rumor that Russia plans to build a whole new plant for mass-producing satellites to pump them out like never before:
· А new plant for the mass production of space satellites will be built in Russia.
· Since 1957, each satellite has been assembled by hand; there has never been a serial production. But now there is a need not only for scientific or military, but also for commercial launches. The request is massive, so it is necessary to automate all processes.
· In total, all Russian enterprises produce 15 satellites a year, given some modernization, this number can be increased to 42, but Roscosmos says that demand is much higher. The medium-term goal is to collect one satellite per day.
· Now a site is being selected, the first plant will be built either in the Moscow Region or in the Krasnoyarsk Territory.
After the fall of the USSR in 1991, there was a lot of restoration to be made in the Russian Federation. Certainly, financial priorities had to be set, so the space and military programs were not as robust compared to the American military industrial complex budget. Here is a little more space technology history.
Space Stations
The Soviet Union had long been at the forefront of the space frontier, beginning with the October 1957 launch of Sputnik, the world’s first artificial satellite. This was followed by the first space station Solyut launched in 1971 and later Mir launched in 1986.
There are two publicly known space stations in low Earth orbit (LEO): the International Space Station (ISS) and China’s Tiangong Space Station (TSS). The ISS has been permanently inhabited since October 2000 and the TSS since June 2022. Management is operationally divided between Russia and the US. In July 2022, Russia announced intentions to withdraw from ISS after 2024. Russia is building its own space station, to be completed and launched in 2024.
The ISS crew size is normally 7 people. It orbits Earth about every 90 minutes. The 2023 Commander is Sergey Prokopyev of Roscosmos. There are also 3 NASA astronauts, 2 cosmonauts, and 1 astronaut from the UAE. The Chinese TSS has a crew of 6. Cargo is delivered by four different unmanned spacecraft: The Russian Progress, the American SpaceX Dragon, the American Northrop Grumman Cygnus, and Japan’s HTV.
Russia’s space station replacement is called Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS). In 2030, Russia is planning to launch a Lunar Orbital Station (LOS). NASA is building Lunar Gateway as part of its Artemis program to be launched in 2024 as well, intended to serve as a science platform and staging area for lunar landings and missions to Mars. The US Is also planning a station for commercial tourism. Lockheed Martin and Blue Origin have platforms planned as well. India, Japan and the European Space Agency each have a series of rocket launchers for satellites.
Russia’s withdrawal from ISS will create new burdens for the US. For example, Russia controls ISS propulsion control systems, providing regular thrust to keep ISS upright and in orbit. Russia has been supplying ISS with cargo, training astronauts, and transporting crew via its Soyuz rocket and spacecraft. Space X also has been transporting NASA astronauts to ISS since 2020. Russia has now stopped selling rocket engines to the US and stopped launching satellites for European countries, such as the UK, in retaliation to the sanctions and the Ukraine War.
Russia is increasing its collaboration with China’s space program, the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA). Roscosmos may help China complete its space station and build a base on the moon. A 2011 US law bans NASA from collaboration with China’s space agency.
Russian Spacecraft
Soyuz Is a series of spacecraft in service since the 1960s. The newest model flying to the ISS is the Soyuz MS series, which carries a crew of three plus cargo. The Russians next generation spacecraft in development is a crew vehicle called the PTK Orel. Political and financial problems following the disintegration of the USSR slowed development of space projects for a couple of decades, but is again gaining speed.
The unmanned Progress cargo ship was developed to meet the demand for constant supplies for space stations. Use of the Soyuz spacecraft did not solve the cargo supply problem. The Progress cargo ship carries materials and supplies for station crew station crews in a pressurized section of the craft, with a docking port allowing the crew to load and unload materials. Propellants are stored outside of pressured compartments to prevent any leaking of gas into the station’s atmosphere. After docking, refueling tanks onboard the cargo ship are linked to the station’s tanks. After unloading, the cargo ship is directed into the atmosphere to burn up. The first version of the Progress was launched in 2000, supplying the MIR space station and later the ISS.
The Soyuz GVK is a retrievable, unmanned Progress spacecraft, or cargo-returning vehicle that replaces cargo ships destroyed during reentry into Earth atmosphere. There were several designs during R&D.
The retrievable GVK is a new cargo ship equipped with a reentry capsule borrowed from the Soyuz spacecraft plus a stretched- out cargo compartment. A new design was sized for the proposed Yamal rocket, and could carry a larger payload than the existing Soyuz-U booster rocket. Unfortunately, those plans fizzled due to a funding crunch. Several years later, a 2006 design by RKK Energia was also shelved due to lack of funding.
The Soyuz GVK concept resurfaced in January 2018 using the most powerful version of the Soyuz rocket launchers, the Soyus-2-1b rocket. Development of the Soyuz GVL was expected to be competed in 2022, but still remains in development. It will be capable of delivering 2,000 kg to orbit and return 500 kg of cargo back to Earth. The only other resupply spacecraft capable of returning cargo from orbit is the SpaceX Dragon 2.
The future PTK Orel is being manufactured by RKK Energia. It will be used for crew transportation in low Earth Orbit and traveling to the moon and possibly Mars. The crew capacity is 4 to 6 people. It is designed for 5 to 30 days of free flight, 365 dockable days in LEO, or 200 days docked in lunar orbit. The planned launch is in 2025. It will replace the Soyuz spacecraft. It is similar in function to US’s Orion.
Concluding Thoughts
Yes, the breakup of the Soviet Union and resulting financial problems did somewhat slow the development of the Russian space program, once the clear world leader. But the technology they did produce, such as rocket engines, cargo ships, crew ships, and its participation in the ISS is not insignificant. I don’t agree with Simplicius’ interpretation that the Russian programed lacks vision and leadership. Not funding space projects fully instead reflected higher priorities in other realms, which are now being adjusted to meet changing needs.
Every country must set priorities, and the stabilization of the economy and ability to produce goods under Putin’s leadership is admirable. Their ability to withstand and thrive in spite of western sanctions while conducting a major military operation proves the importance of sound infrastructure. Russian technology and weapons in the SMO has been shown to outperform US technology and some of it considered the best in the world. Now Putin acknowledges the need to once again advance on space technology, but they have a good start already, even if not the largest program. Conflict has a way of stimulating the production of new devices as with the need for drones. And quality is at least as important as quantity.